Most of this book has concentrated on the here and now, but if you have long-term aspirations you have to look ahead. In the words of John Galsworthy: ‘If you do not think about the future you cannot have one.’

This chapter looks into the future. It speculates about future job prospects in the United States, and in particular, the most promising job sectors and areas for employment. If, however, you are interested in exploring other options -returning home, or perhaps moving on to some other country - these questions are also dealt with briefly.

glut of PhD graduates in engineering (electrical, civil and chemical), maths, bioscience and economics.

WHAT ARE JOB PROSPECTS LIKE?

During the Clinton administration the American economy went from strength to strength while others, especially in the Far East, faltered. This meant more jobs and better prospects in many regions, though some states were untouched by the newly found prosperity.

Under George W. Bush’s presidency the economy has performed less well despite tax cuts; the country has built up a massive trade deficit and the dollar has weakened. During his second term in office such weaknesses will need to be addressed. However, things can only get better and towards the end of 2004 some economic growth was observed.

For outsiders hoping to work in the USA, there have been problems, too. Although many companies and institutions are desperate to recruit qualified staff from anywhere, the attack on the World Trade Center has caused some Americans to regard any foreigner as a potential threat. As a consequence acquiring the necessary permits seems to be tougher now than it used to be.

Certain industries will require fewer staff, either because they are in decline or because of increases in productivity; the automobile and textile industries are cases in point. Others will require more staff, because they are expanding. The outstanding examples here are the health care and home care sectors.

The US needs to recruit one million more nurses between now and 2010, and it is likely that nurses recruited from abroad will be needed to make up the shortfall.

Clearly it makes sense to look for jobs where there is going to be a growth in demand. Fortunately we have some useful forecasts to go by; every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor produces employment projections for each occupation. The latest projections to hand relate to the period 2002–2012.

Figure 15 shows the occupations that are expected to grow the fastest with the IT sector topping the bill. Indeed, the number of IT jobs looks set to almost double. Health care occupations are also likely to undergo a rapid expansion - partly, one suspects, in response to the growing health care needs of an ageing population.

Other sectors which will require many more staff in the future are pre-school education and special education. Prospects also look good for legal assistants (paralegals) and people working in the financial sector. There will also be more opportunities for restaurant managers and musicians.

By contrast numerous manufacturing occupations are likely to decline, especially in the textile, electronics and plastics industries, as a result of automation. Fewer bookkeepers, accounting and auditing clerks will be needed in offices, and the number of typists is likely to fall as well. Telecommunications is also going to lose jobs. However, these are not sectors where much recruitment was done from abroad anyway.

To return to the expanding occupational sectors, while many of the extra jobs mentioned will be taken up by Americans, not all of them will be. Reviewing data showing the mathematical proficiency of pupils in the twelfth grade, an American labour expert noted that ‘a very small pool of young people today appear educationally prepared for many of the occupations projected to grow most rapidly in the 1990–2005 period’.(1)

However, predictions need to be taken with a pinch of salt as they may be based on inaccurate data. In the 1980s the National Science Foundation predicted a shortfall of trained engineers and scientists by 2005, yet at present there is a

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THE MOST PROMISING AREAS

Americans are much more mobile than Europeans, and far more prepared to move to where the action is. Consequently during the 1970s and 1980s there was a migration from the north and cast of the country to the booming Sunbelt region stretching from southern California to Virginia. The Rocky Mountain states also experienced growth during this period, while the Great Plains experienced decline.

These areas continue to look promising. The value of exports from Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Colorado and Oregon has risen in leaps and bounds thanks to proximity to fast growing markets in Asia and Latin America, and much of the recent job growth has been in the south and west (which includes Alaska and New Mexico). States in the south east such as Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma and the District of Columbia have seen relatively modest growth.

As far as one can predict, the need for oil is going to continue, so ‘the oil patch’, as it is sometimes known, will continue to prosper, apart from a few blips now and then. One would expect the high-tech industries that have sprung up in the region to have a bright future. Defence-related industries, however, look less secure.

Although the Mid West has experienced difficulties in the agricultural sector, many of its cities are flourishing.

Minneapolis-St Paul is just one of the centres which is keen to attract outsiders, and so is Nebraska which boasts one of the lowest unemployment rates in the US. The North East offers the worst prospects for employment and growth because of its high costs and downsizing in financial services, utilities and defence. However, New York City has always been the leading centre for finance, publishing, fashion and entertainment, and is likely to remain so into the distant future.

RETURNING HOME TO AN ESTABLISHED POSITION

If you are on the permanent staff of a company you can expect a transfer home sooner or later. This can be a relief to some; but more often than not it will be a wrench, particularly if you have come to enjoy the American life style.

‘Re-entry’, as the return home is sometimes described, is not always a smooth process, and you will need to call on your capacity for adaptation once more. The International Committee of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development offers sound advice:

• Take time to wind down properly.
• Assess and review the change in yourself and those at home.
• Gradually re-establish relations with friends, relatives and professional contacts.
• Plan long- and short-term goals along with strategies for achieving them.
• Accept that you will probably suffer some reverse culture shock, particularly of an organisational, financial and psychological nature.

MOVING ON

If you are on a contract, you may have the option of renewing it; but on the other hand you may well feel it is time to get up and go. Americans believe that if you want to get on you move on rather than stay with the same company for years on end.

There are five main options to consider:

Get another job in the United States

You are well placed to find yourself a better position with another employer. This is easy if you are a resident alien with a ‘green card’; but if you are on a temporary visa your new employer will have to be informed and told about the business of obtaining labour certification. This can. of course, take time, so you need to plan ahead.

Start your own business in the United States

It is relatively easy to buy a small business or to set up your own, but if you are not a permanent resident you will need to obtain the appropriate visa. (See also Chapter 8 and Appendix I.)

Find a job back home

If you are on an exchange visitor visa you will be expected to return home, as your stay in America has been in the nature of an educational visit designed to develop your career in your own country rather than in the United States.

People who have been overseas for a number of years often need time to readjust, and would be wise to take note of the CIPD advice to permanent employees given above. It is also advisable to set about the process of finding yourself a job in the UK well before your departure. Keep your eye on the job columns in UK publications and send off speculative applications.

Seek an overseas posting elsewhere

It is a good idea to approach contacts who know you first of all. Your present employer, for instance, may have operations overseas, and if you have been recruited through an agency, they may have other overseas postings that might be suitable.

The United States is a good place for overseas job hunting, particularly for South America and the Pacific Rim. American companies often recruit non-Americans for overseas assignments, partly because they are more adaptable but also because there are usually fewer visa problems. There are a number of manuals that will set you off in the right direction such as Getting a Job Abroad (see Appendix H.)

Sign up for a study course

The international jobs market is a very competitive place, and if you want to stay in it you need to keep abreast of modern developments in your field. If you do not, you will soon cease to be an attractive proposition to employers. No company is going to employ a has-been - especially a foreign has-been - when they can pick someone more recently qualified who may well be cheaper to employ.

You may be lucky enough to be with an employer who offers training facilities, though if you are employed on contract terms the chances are that you will not benefit from them. Otherwise, why not look into the possibility of home study courses, part-time tuition at night school, or consider taking a sabbatical?

If you plan to stay in the United States, take a look at handbooks such as the NHSC Directory of Home Study Schools, the Handbook of Trade and Technical Careers and Training or one of the guides to higher education mentioned in the Educational Arrangements section in Chapter 5.

GETTING ADVICE

At some stage in your career you may decide that you need advice, particularly if you are contemplating changing direction.

Where can I find advice in the USA?

In the United States you will find a range of facilities at your disposal.

College career services

Most colleges, universities and community colleges have career counselling centres offering workshops, individual counselling and other programmes, and you should be able to use these services even if you are not following a course at the institution. Several can be contacted on the Internet via www.career.com.

Libraries

Many public libraries have career information centres which bring together a wide range of materials relating to careers and job finding. Some of them also provide courses or lectures on career choice.

Adult education centres

Some of these provide career guidance in the form of courses, seminars or individual counselling sessions.

Public voluntary organisations

A number of voluntary organisations exist to help job seekers, often those from minority groups. State and City governments may also offer employment advice services.

Employers

A number of the larger firms now have career development officers, usually within the personnel and training departments, who can help you plan ahead. They also bring in outplacement agencies to counsel staff who are made redundant.

Private careers counsellors

Richard N Bolles’ What Color is your Parachute? lists selected job counsellors. You might also contact the National Employment Counsellors Association.

If you return to the UK and require some form of counselling, the British Association of Counselling can suggest qualified people you can turn to or you might approach the careers service of a local education authority. How to Manage Your Career, Roger Jones, contains some useful addresses.

The Internet

There are numerous websites on the Internet which offer careers advice, some of which have links with job search sites. A search engine, such as Google, can direct you to relevant sources.

THE KEY TO SUCCESS

By this stage no reader should have any illusions that finding a job in America is an easy task, especially for a non-American. No job is going to come looking for you; instead you need to put in considerable effort to search out suitable opportunities, more so than if you are seeking a job in your own country.

Persistence, however, is not sufficient; you also need to be well informed. An expatriate jobs magazine boasts, ‘The Nexus commitment is research, research and more research’, and this is precisely the attitude you need to adopt if you are serious about working in the United States.

The remainder of this book is devoted to helping you with your research into job opportunities. Follow up the various leads, offer a good account of yourself, and one day you may well surmount the odds and attain your objective: a worthwhile and interesting job in the USA. Good luck!