Ever since television was invented in the 1930s, people have been predicting its downfall. The industry runs in cycles, sometimes triggered by technology; more often by social and economic considerations.

At the time of writing, the industry is in the doldrums. Despite the promise of digital, the vast expansion of available channels, and the coming of widescreen, the TV companies seem unable to make enough money. And once again the doom-sayers are out in force, with their rallying cry: ‘The golden age of television ended a week ago last Thursday ...’

Don’t listen to them. The truth is that TV programmes are here to stay. The delivery systems may change. Audiences may be fragmented. And using advertising to fund channels may disappear as a business model. But people still want to be entertained, informed and educated by that small, colourful and exciting box in the corner.

WHAT THE FUTURE LOOKS LIKE

For what it’s worth, here’s my prediction: the high-end shows (expensive comedy and drama, often co-productions or American-made) will always be with us. They’ll probably become ‘pay-per-view’, which means that instead of being broadcast on a free-to-air channel, you’ll choose to watch them. In the future, we won’t come home from work or school and say ‘what’s on TV tonight?’ – we’ll watch what we want to watch, when we want to watch it. Soaps will continue, at least in the short-term; they offer an escape into a safe and familiar world, so people become addicted to them. They’re already the mainstay of ITV, and they almost guarantee an audience for free-to-air channels. The problem will be how to fund them: see below.

There’s also a big future for very low-end, niche programming. If you can make a show for (say) boating enthusiasts, for a reasonable budget, then its audience will find it. Entire channels already work on this model (like Discovery Wings). There are lots of funding options as well – sponsorship being the obvious one. But this kind of niche audience will also be prepared to keep watching through the commercial break, because the adverts will be targeted and relevant.

And of course there will always be live, topical programmes: sport, news, current affairs, quizzes that give away a million dollars...

So where’s the bad news?

I’m afraid there is some. The idea that an entire channel can be funded by advertising has had its day. The beginning of the end came with the remote control. The end of the end will be when a computer in your television can edit out the adverts, even when you’re watching a live programme.

The new model will be sponsorship and product placement, so that the commercial messages are embedded in the content of the show itself. You can’t watch the show without watching the advert ...

Twenty years ago it was a given that the audiences were loyal to a channel. Some viewers watched BBC1 all evening; others were ‘ITV types’. And a select few chose programmes on BBC2 or Channel 4. (In those days, BBC1 was perceived to have an advantage because it came up as the first button on most TV sets!) Today the audiences don’t care what channel they’re watching – hence the ubiquitous branding buttons in the top corner of the picture. People watch programmes rather than channels; fans of Friends will find reruns, wherever they are in the 200 channel EPG.

The programmes that will be hit hardest are the ones that you find in ‘shoulder-peak’ (as it’s called) on terrestrial channels: shows that people watch when they come on, but probably wouldn’t go out of their way to find. So cheap game shows are in danger, and bad docusoaps ... in fact any general audience shows that aren’t spectacularly successful.

YOUR FUTURE

But the good news is that the industry will always need content – and content comes from people like you. It’s your ideas that are needed to take television forward. It’s your enthusiasm and commitment that will create the most talked about shows next year, and five years from now. So, have a great career, in the best job in the world!